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Foreign Policy Binary

Status Open

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Apr 16, 2026, 04:00 PM - Apr 23, 2026, 10:53 AM
Yes 7.5% · -3.2%
No 92.6% · +3.2%
4% 27% 50% 73% 96%
Apr 16Apr 20Apr 23
1H6H1D1WMAX
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Market Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Yes 7.5%
No 92.6%
End time Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM