politics channel

World Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom 25.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.5%

Politics

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Keiko Fujimori

Keiko Fujimori 65.5%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino 24.5%

Politics

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance 39.2%

Marco Rubio 19.2%

World

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? June 30

June 30 5.5%

December 31 0%

World

Israeli parliament dissolved by...?

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? June 30

June 30 20%

February 28 0%

Politics

Colombia Presidential Election

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro 34.5%

Paloma Valencia 34.4%

Elections

California Governor Election Winner

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Tom Steyer

Tom Steyer 36.4%

Xavier Becerra 30.8%

Geopolitics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Binary Dec 31

Yes 29.5%

No 70.5%

Politics

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Chong Won-oh

Chong Won-oh 87%

Oh Se-hoon 9.5%

Elections

Iowa Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election? Rob Sand

Rob Sand 97.2%

Julie Stauch 1.3%

Foreign Policy

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Binary Dec 31

Yes 7.5%

No 92.6%

Trump Presidency

Will Trump visit China by...?

Will Trump visit China by April 30? April 30

June 30 83.5%

May 31 76.5%

Politics

U.S. strike on Nigeria by...?

U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026? June 30

June 30 29.5%

March 31 0%

Culture

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? December 31

December 31 20.5%

September 30 15.5%

World

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro 86.5%

Abelardo de la Espriella 9.6%

World Elections

West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? BJP

BJP 53.5%

AITC 45.7%

Politics

Will Russia enter Borova by...?

Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? May 31

May 31 12%

April 30 4.3%

Politics

Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? Alexander Vindman

Alexander Vindman 89.3%

Jared Moskowitz 6.3%

World

Maduro guilty of all counts?

Binary Dec 31

Yes 22.5%

No 77.5%

Politics

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Democrats Sweep

Democrats Sweep 50.5%

R Senate, D House 37.5%

Primaries

Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner

Will Tom Tiffany win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election? Tom Tiffany

Tom Tiffany 89%

Tommy Thompson 2.7%

Politics

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? December 31

December 31 13%

June 30 4.2%

Politics

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? 35%

35% 44.5%

30% 10.5%

Politics

Arizona Governor Republican Primary Winner

Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election? Andy Biggs

Andy Biggs 92%

David Schweikert 4.4%

Trump x al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

Binary Dec 31

Yes 14.5%

No 85.5%

Politics

How many Republican House members not running in 2026?

Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 40 and 43 inclusive? 40–43

40–43 43.4%

36–39 31.8%

Elections

Trump out as President before 2027?

Binary Dec 31

Yes 16.5%

No 83.5%

US Election

New York Democratic Governor Primary Winner

Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary? Kathy Hochul

Kathy Hochul 96.1%

Antonio Delgado 1.7%

Awards

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 10.2%

Yulia Navalnaya 9.5%

Politics

Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner

Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? Megan Degenfelder

Megan Degenfelder 72.5%

Eric Barlow 17.9%

World

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

World · Live market Dec 31

Team A 25.5%

Live market · World

Team B 74.5%

Politics

AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner

Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05? Mark Lamb

Mark Lamb 88%

Travis Grantham 4.7%

US Election

How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

Will Republican House incumbents not win in fewer than three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? <3

<3 41.9%

4-6 32.6%

Elections

NH-01 Republican Primary Winner

Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? Anthony DiLorenzo

Anthony DiLorenzo 46.5%

Hollie Noveletsky 32.5%

World

Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by...?

Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? June 30, 2026

June 30, 2026 3.9%

December 31, 2025 0%

Politics

Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Graham Platner

Graham Platner 92.5%

Janet Mills 6.5%